If we solely go by the rhetorical recklessness, brinkmanship and recent posturing by some of the leaders of Pakistan, the scenario seems pretty inevitable actually, albeit whether it will take place inside PM Modi’s first term is hard to tell for sure.
Even if we neglect Pakistani leaders’ tendency to shoot their mouths off before thinking, the likelihood for an accidental or inadvertent nuclear exchange is increasing day by day because — apart from fomenting communal poison against Indians, or arming and harbouring terrorists — Pakistan is building low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for its inferiority to India in conventional weaponry, strength of armed forces and economy.
But the thing that makes this development a scary one is that they increase the risk of a potential nuclear exchange between the two nations. Due to their relatively shorter ranges (of about 60 kilometers), these types of weapons must be deployed close to the front-lines and ready for use at short-notice.
Thus lower-ranking officers are granted “greater authority and capability to arm and launch nuclear weapons” which “raises the risk of unauthorized actions during a crisis.”
- Is the army expected to do work in the civil area during normal times?
- Can I finish US Army training without deployment? Can you solely learn the material?
- What makes a position easily defendable?
- Does Egypt have the military capability to defeat Israel, given that Israel is not supported by allies?
- If the UK breaks up after brexit, Who keeps the military?
Once that happens, regardless of the size of the bomb, it will be considered a nuclear attack on India, and that, in accordance with India’s no-first use policy and the cold-start doctrine, will surely be met with an overwhelming and devastating response from India, crushing Pakistan once and for all.
The situation is precarious, and with Pakistan’s impending bankruptcy, it’s becoming more and more so. And, at this juncture, their foolhardy bellicosity might result in the disruption of whatever vestiges of peace we have left in the region.
Still, we must not lose heart. Not all is what they seem as there is much more to it than what meets the eye of a layman. Considering that these leaders are well aware of what’s at stake here and they know full well that, in the event of a nuclear war, there will be no trace of a Pakistan, I reckon these impetuous off-the-cuff remarks by the likes of Musharraf are only empty rhetoric.
Hopefully, they are as much averse to the idea of a nuclear war as any Nation with sane people should be.
I quote one of my comments:
I would rather my nation be a Hegemonic power than behave like a mendicant slave against aggressors and blood-thirsty barbarians.
Also, I wonder, why did Pakistan not use Nukes during Kargil war? What stopped them?
What could have been more important to them than defeating India that was rapidly heading towards a resounding triumph over Pakistan?
They lost the battle, and, at least according to these bellicose brinksmen, using Nuke would have given them an edge over India, so why didn’t they use them? Who is to say that whatever “circumstances” kept them from using nukes then won’t arise again and with double the intensity?
Because they knew perfectly well that once they give India an excuse to use nukes against Pakistan, there will BE NO PAKISTAN.
Otherwise, they would most definitely have used it a long time ago without even blinking twice. (source)
Instead of obsessing over Kashmir which they are not getting without an internecine nuclear confrontation, their time and energy would be better spent on efforts to develop their economy and improve the lives of people there. Our problems are similar and we could be looking to have each other’s back as neighbours and not let one irrational imbroglio regarding a half-barren piece of land preclude peace forever.
- Pak general: No chances of India-Pakistan war
- Why the world must worry about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal
- The Threshold for Nuclear War Between Pakistan and India Keeps Dropping – FPIF
- If India and Pakistan Went to War: 5 Weapons Pakistan Should Fear
- The threshold for nuclear war